EURUSD Pre-NFP Positioning — Sell-the-Rally Plan into Sep 4, 2026
By Aj.Bom Kittitat — XM VIP Partner, iCafeFX · Published 15 Aug 2026
Method note: this is a positioning card for the three weeks between now and the next US non-farm payrolls report (Friday, Sep 4, 2026). Levels are expressed in pips from the weekly band rather than as fixed prices — the live band publishes every Monday in our Telegram channel, so nothing on this card is a fabricated quote.
Signal Card — Pre-NFP Positioning
| Field | Plan |
|---|---|
| Pair | EURUSD |
| Direction | SELL rallies — dollar-strength scenario |
| Entry | Pullback into the weekly resistance band (level set at Monday open) |
| TP1 | +60 pips from entry |
| TP2 | +100 pips from entry |
| Stop loss | 35 pips above scenario invalidation |
| Session | Multi-day — hold from London open, review at every New York close |
| Status | Active scenario — void if the weekly candle closes back above invalidation |
Why this setup
The window between mid-August and the first Friday of September is a positioning market: dealers build dollar books ahead of the payrolls print, and the late-August Jackson Hole symposium gives the theme its cue. In that environment, EURUSD rallies that stall into a falling weekly band are supply until proven otherwise. The plan sells those stalls — not the lows — with a tight invalidation so the cost of being wrong stays fixed and small. If Jackson Hole flips the dollar theme, the weekly close will say so, and this card voids itself without drama.
Execution notes on XM
- One position at a time; this is a campaign, not a collection of tickets.
- Bank partials at TP1 and reassess before every top-tier US release (NFP-adjacent data: CPI, PCE, claims).
- No new risk 24 hours before the Sep 4 print — the campaign ends flat into the event itself.
- Swap matters on a multi-day hold: check the EURUSD specification window on your account type before sending the order.
How do I follow this plan?
Wait for EURUSD to pull back into the resistance band each week, then sell with 35-pip risk and the published targets. The exact band level resets every Monday in our Telegram channel, and the scenario stays valid until the September 4 NFP print unless price closes the week back above invalidation.
What lot size should I use?
With a 35-pip stop, 0.01 lot per 2,000 USD of equity keeps risk near 1.75 percent, so scale down to 0.005-0.01 lot per 2,000 USD if you are trading the full position. Reduce further in the Jackson Hole week, when daily ranges on EURUSD can double without warning.